Evidence-Based Selling

Evidence Blindness

The inability of recruiters to see proof that someone in their network's network is actually hiring or ready to move — making every referral ask vague and easy to ignore.

What is Evidence Blindness?

Evidence Blindness is one of the Three Blindnesses in recruiting — the inability to see proof that someone connected to your network is actually hiring or ready to move. Without evidence, every referral request defaults to "Do you know anyone?" — a vague question that requires the other person to search their memory, evaluate fit, and decide if it's worth the effort. The answer is almost always "not off the top of my head."

Why It Matters

The difference between a vague ask and an evidence-backed ask is the difference between a 2% and a 34% conversion rate.

34%
hire rate from warm referrals
Source: Industry research
2-5%
hire rate from cold job boards
Source: Industry research

"Do you know anyone?" is where referrals go to die. "Sarah, your former colleague Bob just posted 3 finance roles similar to the one we filled for you — would you mind making an intro?" is a completely different conversation.

The Data Already Exists

Job postings, funding rounds, leadership changes, and hiring signals are all publicly available. The problem isn't access — it's connection. These signals exist in separate systems, disconnected from the recruiter's actual network:

  • Placement records live in Bullhorn
  • Email conversations live in Gmail or Outlook
  • LinkedIn connections live on LinkedIn
  • Job postings live on company websites

Connected, these data points tell you: "This person is happy. They know someone who's hiring. Here's the evidence. Make the ask." Disconnected, they're noise across five systems.

The First-to-Know Advantage

Eddy Lee at Bullhorn noted: "The interesting thing about what you're doing is that you're actually looking at the signals... versus those referral management platforms are more focused on incentives."

The distinction matters. Incentivizing referrals treats the symptom. Providing evidence treats the cause.

How WarmPath Solves It

WarmPath monitors intent signals across job postings, funding events, leadership changes, and hiring patterns — then connects them to the recruiter's actual network. When evidence meets network meets timing, the system generates a specific, actionable ask with a one-click intro workflow.

Frequently Asked Questions

Evidence Blindness is the inability of recruiters to see proof that someone connected to their network is actually hiring or ready to move. Without evidence, every referral ask defaults to 'Do you know anyone?' — a question that requires the other person to do all the cognitive work and almost always fails.

Stop leaving revenue on the table

WarmPath tells you when to ask, who to ask about, and why they'll say yes. Join 40+ design partners launching March 2026.